The central asian landlocked country Afghanistan has been recognised as graveyard of empires. The hilly tribal land is infamous for driving away superpowers out of its territory. The recent development of extremist militant Pashtoon group, after US force withdrawl has led to a uncertain environment not only for Afghans but the entire world. India, an emerging regional power has it’s strategic interests in the neighbouring country therefore the fall of Kabul has overarching implications on it also. The geo political scenario has been dented irreversibly and India will have to engage with the challenges coming its way after opening of the Pandora’s box.
India being a firm supporter of peace and stability in the region supported the US installed democratically elected government led by Ashraf Ghani. It in the past from 1996 to 2001 during Taliban 1.0 also maintained a arms length distance from the declared terrorist organisation and even did not recognise it, failing to give it political legitimacy. The same question has popped up again in front of foreign policy think tanks in India whether to accept taliban or to maintain diplomatic distance. India being located in a hostile space surrounded by China and Pakistan, now also cannot afford to have another challenge from its north west.
The underlying intentions of using violence as a means by taliban is also a worry for India. Being a militant group taliban can also provide a safe haven to anti india Pak based terrorist group to carry on infiltration attempts to India. The security condition of integral state of Kashmir is also expected to worsen. Taliban getting open support from Pakistan establishments can aid it to destabilize Kashmir. The terrorist spill over is a big security threat for India. India’s Quad ally USA creating a distinction between good and bad Taliban is further a problem as taliban will get support to eliminate ISIS Khorasan but the hidden friendship or enemosity is still a tough nut to crack. India having supported the Northern Alliance initiative led by Ahmed Masoor as well as hijack of Indian airline’s flight IC814 will create trust deficit between Taliban and India. China with deep purses following neo colonialism has got free ground in afghan to spread its influence and extract rear earth minerals. This will lead to uneven balance of power in the region. The hard earned soft power and influence during 20 years of democracy building in Afghan is also dusted along with the 3 billion investment of building infrastructure projects like Salma dam and parliament.
India being boxed and disconnected from central asia, Russia Europe due to Pakistan’s blockade, thought of bypassing through Chabahar port in Iran whose connectivity links went from Afghan territory. But now the connecting link between east and west Asia historically has virtually become an extension of Pakistan restricting India to find alternate trade route yet again. This will significantly affect India’s outreach programs and actions to increase bilateral trade relations with other countries.
After 9-11 attacks in 2001 and US invasion taliban fighters had to live in shadows sustaining only on drug trade. Being part of the golden crescent and exporter of 80 percent of world’s drug, new regime in Afghanistan can also lead to a drug menace in India. Having faced sanctions from all european countries, Taliban will be forced to go back to its ways of drug cultivation which can have severe ramifications on indian social fabric and demographic divident. Having been succesful in toppling a democratic government, it can also act as a source of inspiration for extremists in India boosting their morale. Redundant extremist interpretation can lead to dent in human right guarantee. Having a destabilized neighbourhood is not in benefit of India.
The victory of Taliban also comes with a light on failure of multilateralism institutions like United Nations Organisation who became a mere audience to unfolding spectacle. India having its faith and belief in UN to resolve world issues will have to rely more on minilateral corporations like that of Quad and SCO. The face saving withdrawl of the hegemon US who had developed cordeal ties with India leads to lack of diplomatic capital. India having an idea to develop and benefit from world being a unipolar has been shattered. India not being included in new Quad formed between USA, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan excluding India is harming its position in the region.
The situation is not only grim and looking at a flip side of the coin, the Taliban challenge also comes with a inherent opportunity for India to assert itself in the region by aiding in forming a inclusive government in Afghanistan. India can engage with both USA and USSR bringing them together on a single platform to discuss Afghanistan which is impossible for any other nation to pursue. The New Delhi Dialogue to be conducted having all stake holders as invitees is a good step ahead. India can now forge friendships with central asian republics with whom it shares a common threat. The infrastructure investments in Afghanistan are also not doomed as India has earned goodwill of afghan nationals which can help it gain a head start to communicate and bargain with taliban. Unpopular Taliban government requires legitimacy and getting support of India can prove
crucial. India can use this upper hand to forward its interests in mining and trade sectors.
Taliban’s capture is a multifold multi disciplinary effect for India’s national interest and strategic autonomy in form of social , economic, political, diplomatic and security challenges. India at the time unsure about change in basic persona of Taliban’s leadership comprising of multiple factions has to follow its wait and watch policy. As said by Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jai Shankar, Afghanistan’s past cannot be its future so there is a ray of hope for taliban to reform itself meeting modernist approach and abandoning ultra extremist ways. It is a tough balancing act for India to walk on a tight rope when it comes to confronting Afghanistan crisis.
Essay By
Manu Garg
Hindu College